Changing fiscal landscape
* Daniel Johnston is founder of Daniel Johnston & Co., Inc a financial consulting firm to the international oil industry. Daniel is author of a number of books on the subject of petroleum fiscal analysis and design. E-mail: daniel@danieljohnston.com, dj_co@msn.com, www.danieljohnston.com
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Oil company and government relationships at the turn of this century are under intense pressure. These relationships are always in a state-of-flux but higher drama now exists in the heat of the current price shock. Just as the aftermath of the 1973 embargo has undergone nearly constant re-examination over the years, the dynamics of today’s industry will be reviewed and studied for generations. This is true for a number of reasons but particularly because governments are reconsidering their position with respect to their oil industry partners and many are taking action.
Sometimes sorting out cause and effect is like chasing one’s tail. The dynamics are complex and fundamentals do not always provide the answers. The changing landscape is due to a number of things aside from this price shock, but the focus here is the future of the relationships between oil companies and governments.
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1. IOCs–NOCs – Service companies |
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What was once the exclusive domain
Independent oil companies
National oil companies
Service companies
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2. Historical setting |
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System evolution and government control – Indonesia
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3. Contracts of the 1980s–1990s |
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4. Prices and costs |
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5. Today’s changes |
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6. Milestones |
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Alaska – Democracy under pressure
Algeria – Big changes
Bolivia – The disenfranchised
India – Unintended consequences
Britain – A study in volatility
California – Unpredictable
Russia – After the gold rush
US outer Continental shelf
Libya – Another lesson in leapfrogging
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7. Contracts of the future |
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